Macroeconomic Effects on Mortality: Issues, Controversies, and Directions for Research
Title
Macroeconomic Effects on Mortality: Issues, Controversies, and Directions for Research
Author
Granados, José A. Tapia
Research Area
Social Institutions
Topic
Work and the Economy
Abstract
This essay examines the development of ideas on the macroeconomic effects on mortality. It surveys some nineteenth century views, the early twentieth century contributions of Ogburn and Thomas, the 1970s–1980s debates of Brenner and Eyer, and the modern views, contributions, and controversies involving Ruhm and other authors who have tried to demonstrate the empirical support—or the lack of it—for the contentious hypothesis of the procyclical oscillation of mortality. That is the pattern, now clearly established for many, but unproved for more than a few skeptics, that once long‐term trends are taken away, mortality oscillates with the business cycle, rising in expansions and declining in recessions. Potential sources of discrepancies, hypothesized or proven mechanisms for procyclical mortality, and related policy issues are discussed, and the essay concludes by suggesting five questions that future research should aim to answer.
To the memory of Joe Eyer, 1944–2017
To the memory of Joe Eyer, 1944–2017